Are Emperor Penguins Endangered? Sea Ice and Climate Change

What is the emperor penguin’s status?

The IUCN Red List, the world’s main inventory of species at risk, has steadily raised its concern for the emperor penguin. The species was rated Least Concern until 2012, when it was moved to Near Threatened. In its April 2026 update, the IUCN moved it again, to Endangered.

The assessment, coordinated by BirdLife International, was based mainly on projections. Satellite images show the population fell by around 10% between 2009 and 2018, a loss of more than 20,000 adult birds. Population models covering a wide range of climate scenarios predict that numbers will halve by the 2080s unless greenhouse gas emissions are cut sharply.

Emperors are not alone. The same 2026 update moved the Antarctic fur seal to Endangered and the southern elephant seal to Vulnerable. Among penguins, the African penguin is now Critically Endangered, and several other species are Vulnerable or Endangered.

How many emperor penguins are there?

Counting emperor penguins is difficult because they breed in remote places during the polar winter. Since the late 2000s, scientists have used satellite images, spotting colonies by the brown guano stains they leave on the ice. These surveys revealed many colonies that had never been visited, raising the known total from 46 to more than 60.

Current estimates are roughly 250,000–280,000 breeding pairs, or around half a million adults. That may sound like a lot, but all of these birds depend on the same fragile habitat: sea ice around Antarctica.

Why emperor penguins need stable sea ice

Emperor penguins breed on fast ice, sea ice that is attached to the coast or held in place by grounded icebergs. They need this ice to stay firm from about April, when they arrive, until December or January, when the chicks have grown waterproof feathers and can go to sea. Adults also need stable ice for their annual molt, a period of about a month when they cannot swim.

If the ice breaks up too early, chicks that are still covered in down can drown or freeze. If it forms too late or too thinly, adults may struggle to find a safe breeding site. Sea ice also supports the food web the penguins rely on, including Antarctic krill and the fish that eat it.

Recent breeding failures

Since 2016, Antarctic sea ice has repeatedly hit record lows, and the effects on emperor penguins have been dramatic:

• Halley Bay, Weddell Sea: once the second-largest known colony, it had almost no chicks survive in 2016, 2017 and 2018 after the sea ice broke up early. Many adults appear to have moved to a nearby colony.
• Bellingshausen Sea: in 2022, satellite images showed that four of the five colonies in this region probably lost all their chicks when the ice melted beneath them before they could swim.
• Dion Islands, Antarctic Peninsula: a small colony studied since 1948 had disappeared completely by 2009, the first confirmed loss of an entire emperor colony.

Single failures are survivable for a long-lived bird, but repeated failures over many years mean too few young birds join the population.

What the future looks like

Scientists have modeled how emperor penguins would fare under different climate scenarios. If emissions remain high, studies project that more than 90% of colonies could become “quasi-extinct”, too small to survive, by 2100. If the world meets the targets of the Paris Agreement, the decline would be much smaller, although some colonies would still be lost.

Emperor penguins can move between colonies and shift breeding sites onto ice shelves, which may soften the losses in some places. But these strategies cannot replace the sea ice itself.

Other threats

Climate change is by far the main threat, but not the only one:

• Fishing: commercial fishing for krill and toothfish in the Southern Ocean could reduce prey, especially if it concentrates near colonies.
• Disturbance: aircraft, vehicles and tourists that come too close can stress breeding birds and chicks.
• Disease and pollution: highly pathogenic bird flu has spread to Antarctic wildlife in recent years, and researchers are watching for its effects on penguins.

What is being done?

Antarctica is governed by the Antarctic Treaty System, which strictly limits disturbance of wildlife and regulates fishing through an international commission. Scientists monitor emperor colonies every year by satellite, which gives early warning of breeding failures. The US listing under the Endangered Species Act requires US federal agencies to make sure their own activities, such as permits for research or fishing, do not put the species at further risk.

Ultimately, the future of the emperor penguin depends on limiting global warming. To learn about the other species at risk, see our list of endangered animals and how many penguin species there are.